Evidence · Revenue and tax

Well evidenced

The 2026 budget — proposal versus enacted

Figures below refer to 17 April 2026 unless stated otherwise.

The claim

The 2026 budget was PROPOSED at ₦58.18tn in December 2025 but ENACTED at ₦68.323tn. The National Assembly raised it by roughly ₦10tn (17%), passed it on 31 March 2026, and the President signed it on 17 April 2026 alongside an extension letting 2025 capital spending run to 30 June 2026.

Figures

Proposal assumptions: $64.85/bbl, 1.84 mbpd, ₦1,400/$. Proposed revenue ₦34.33tn, deficit ₦23.85tn (4.28% of GDP), capex ₦26.08tn, recurrent ₦15.25tn. Proposed sector allocations: security ₦5.41tn, education ₦3.52tn, infrastructure ₦3.56tn, health ₦2.48tn. Enacted changes: ₦5.71tn in 2025 project rollovers, ₦2tn in legislator 'priority projects', oil benchmark raised to $75/bbl. Enacted structure: statutory transfers ₦4.799tn, debt service ₦15.8tn, recurrent ₦15.4tn, development/capital fund ₦32.2tn.

The counter-argument

The ₦5.71tn of rollovers is an admission that the 2025 budget did not deliver. By September 2025 only 18% of the capital budget had been disbursed and revenue collection reached 61% of target. Statutorily required quarterly implementation reports were late, with Q3 and Q4 2025 still unpublished as at 31 March 2026.

Sources

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