Evidence · Macroeconomy

Well evidenced

Foreign exchange reserves and the naira

Figures below refer to 14 August 2026 unless stated otherwise.

The claim

External reserves reached a 17-year high in 2026 and the parallel-market premium has largely closed.

Figures

Reserves $52.5bn as at 17 July 2026 — the highest in 17 years and above the CBN's 2026 target. Above $52bn as at 14 August 2026. Compare $33.22bn in December 2023. Naira ₦1,358.25/$ on 14 August 2026. Total FX inflows $109.9bn in 2025 (CBN), of which roughly $71bn was autonomous — private money rather than central bank supply. Autonomous inflows were $59.29bn in 2024. CBN FX sales $8.94bn in 2025, up 126% year on year. Capital inflows $23bn in 2025, a six-year high. MPR held at 26.5% at the 306th MPC meeting on 20–21 July 2026; CRR 45% for deposit money banks.

The counter-argument

The naira's stability came after a devaluation that roughly tripled the cost of imported goods in naira terms. Reserve strength is real and is what pays for imports and reassures investors; it is not felt directly by a household buying rice.

Sources

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