Evidence · Macroeconomy

Moderate evidence

Inflation

Figures below refer to 30 June 2026 unless stated otherwise.

The claim

Headline inflation fell substantially from its 2024 peak but has plateaued around 16% in 2026, and food inflation began re-accelerating in mid-2026. The July 2026 print had not been released as of 16 August 2026.

Figures

December 2024: 34.80% (old series). January 2025: 24.48% (first rebased print). June 2025: 25.29%. December 2025: 15.15%. April 2026: 15.69%. May 2026: 15.93%. June 2026: 15.91% headline. June 2026 detail — food inflation 17.52% year on year, up from 16.96% in May; food month on month 3.75%, up from 2.98%; core 15.92%. State spread: Kogi highest at 53.02%, Katsina lowest at 19.15%.

The counter-argument

CRITICAL: the NBS rebased the CPI basket from 2009 to 2024 in January 2025, which alone cut the headline from 34.80% to 24.48% overnight. NBS never published a parallel old series. Pre- and post-January-2025 figures are NOT comparable and any comparison spanning that month is invalid. SBM Intelligence's Jollof Index rose 153% between March 2023 and June 2025 to ₦27,527.85 per pot.

Sources

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